2013年12月至2014年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

摘要

为了更好地应用 T639模式中期预报产品，对2013年12月至2014年2月 T639模式中期预报时效产品进行了天气学检验，并与 ECMWF（文中简称 EC）和日本模式（文中简称 JP）进行了对比分析。结果表明：3个模式均对亚洲中高纬大气环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。对于850 hPa 温度场，ECMWF 模式的预报误差最小，日本模式次之，T639模式略差；与之前秋季预报结果相比，3个模式对温度场预报能力均有所减弱。对于海平面气压场，ECMWF 仍然显示出较好的预报性能。综合看来，ECMWF 模式对主要天气系统及气象要素的预报最接近分析场；日本模式和 T639模式次之。%In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639,a synoptic verification on its medium range forecasts from December 2013 to February 2014 is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models.The results show that all the three models have good performances on the aspect of pre-dicting the large-scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas.For temperatures at 850 hPa,ECMWF’s prediction error is the least among the three models,followed by Ja-pan and T639 models in order.Compared with the temperature prediction for the last autumn,the results from the three models are not so good.For the sea level pressure,ECMWF model still shows the best per-formance among the models.As a whole,the ECMWF model is much better in forecasting most weather systems and meteorological elements than the T639 and Japan models.