2011年12月至2012年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

摘要

对2011年12月至2012年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式的中期预报产品的预报性能进行天气学检验和对比分析。结果表明：三家模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整、演变及对流层中低层温度变化具有较好的预报能力。EC模式对西风指数和850 hPa温度的预报最接近零场;日本和T639模式次之。对冬季南支槽的预报,EC模式效果较好,T639和日本模式预报强度偏弱。三家模式对地面冷高压中心强度的预报均存在不同程度的偏弱,日本模式预报误差最小,T639模式和EC模式误差相对较大。%The performance of T639,ECMWF and Japan models about their medium-range forecasting during December 2011 to February 2012 was verified and compared.The results show that the three models all have good performance on predicting the large-scale circulation evolution and adjustment over Asian middle and high latitude area and the temperature trends in the lower troposphere.ECMWF model is the best at forecasting westerly wind index and 850 hPa temperature.With respect to forecasting of trough in the Bay of Bengal,ECMWF model has the best performance,while the forecasts by T639 and Japan models are both weaker than their initial fields.The three models predict the weak surface high,and the errors of Japan model is the smallest while those of T639 and EC models are comparatively larger.