2014年12月至2015年2月T639、EC MWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

摘要

提文章对2014年12月至2015年2月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变及850 hPa温度转折性变化具有较好的中期预报性能，但都存在随时效增长的系统性偏差；对北方地区温度的预报，EC模式表现为预报较零场偏高，而T639模式表现为预报较零场偏低；对于海平面气压场，EC模式对冷空气前锋的预报与零场更加一致。%The medium-range forecasting performances of T639,ECMWF and Japan models from Septem-ber to November 2014 are verified and compared.The results show that the three models all have good performances in predicting the variation and adj ustment of atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas and the transition of temperature at 850 hPa,but all of them have systemic errors in-creasing with forecasting time length.Both T639 and EC have biases in temperature forecast for the north-ern part of China.The forecast of ECMWF model is higher than initial field,but T639 model is exactly the opposite.For the sea level pressure forecasting,EC model has better performance than the other two models.