JMA/MRI-CPS2模式对东亚夏季风系统预测能力的评估

摘要

基于东京气候中心提供的新一代气候预测业务模式(JMA/MRI-CPS2)回报数据,综合多种评估方法,评估了其对于东亚夏季风的预测技巧,结果表明该模式能够模拟出气候场上主要降水中心和夏季风主要成员的位置,但存在明显的系统性偏差.对于年际变率的预测,泰勒图分析结果表明,该模式对夏季风指数预测效果总体较好,对于副热带高压指数中的面积、强度和西伸脊点指数预测能力较好,但对于脊线南北位置指数的预测效果较差;分月来看,4和5月起报结果的技巧相对更高.MV-EOF分析的结果表明模式较为准确地把握住了东亚夏季风主要模态的空间分布,滞后相关分析的结果表明其第一模态反映出了厄尔尼诺衰减的影响,第二模态反映出了厄尔尼诺发展的影响,合成分析的结果也显示,模式能够反映出厄尔尼诺发展的不同位相下东亚季风环流响应的差异.这些分析表明该模式对于东亚季风区的预测具有一定技巧,可以作为每年汛期气候预测的有益参考.%Based on hindeast data of the a new version of JMA/MRI-CPS2 climate prediction model supplied by Tokyo Climate Centre,the skill of predicting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is evaluated by use of several estimating methods.The results show that some features of EASM can be predicted,including the climatical distribution of the main precipitation centers and the main members of EASM system,but with some systematic biases.Taylor diagram analysis shows the JMA/MRI-CPS2 model has decent skills in predicting the monsoon indices,as well as the area,intensity and western ridge point of subtropical high.However,for the south-north position index of the ridge line,its prediction result is poor.Reviewed monthly,the results issued in April and May are better.The spatial distribution of the main modes of MV-EOF analyses on EASM are also presented.Similar to the observation,the first mode in hindeast shows the influence of attenuating El Ni(n)o and the second one shows the influence of developing El Ni(n)o.The composite analysis reflects the different responses of EASM circulation to the different phases of El Ni(n)o in developing and decaying years.All of the analyses indicate the model's high predicting skills in EASM region,which could be used as a reference in climate prediction for the flood season every year.