小尺度煤粮复合区耕地演变预测

摘要

基于县域小尺度,以山东省的A县和B县为研究对象,利用基于概率积分法的MSPS软件对2县煤粮复合区内因采煤塌陷造成的耕地演变趋势进行了预测分析.结果表明:A县和B县的煤粮复合区面积分别为31658 hm2和19792 hm2,占2县含煤面积的71.03％和80.32％,占2县耕地面积的27.70％和20.21％.随着煤炭的不断开采,2县复合区的耕地面积将不断减少.据预测,到闭矿时,2县共损毁耕地38934 hm2,占煤粮复合区面积的75.67％,将会造成约37万农民无地可种.%Based on a relatively small-scale, the software MSPS, which is based on the probability integral method, is used to forecast the plantation-evolution trends caused by coal mining subsidence in A and B county of Shandong. The results show that the areas in crop and coal production of A and B county is 31 658 hm2 and 19792 hm2 respectively, which account for 71. 03 and 80. 32 % of the coal-bearing areas and account for 27. 70 and 20. 21% of cultivated fields respectively. The arable lands are declining with the continued exploitation of coal mine. It is predicted that till the mines closure, there will be 38 934 hm arable lands damaged, accounting for 75. 67% of the total overlapped area of crop and coal production , which means that there will be about 0. 37 million farmers without land to cultivate.