北京市西城区社区卫生资源配置预测

摘要

Objective:To predict the scale of resource allocation for community health service in 2020 by analyzing the status of Xicheng Dis-trict in Beijing.Methods:Using Population Prediction Method to calculate population of Xicheng District.Indicators Method, Need and Demand Method were used to predict the situation of resource allocation for community health services.Results:The prediction showed that, there are 67 community health institutions in 2020, 194 medical practitioners and 239 registered nurses needed in Xicheng District and 1079-1737 Clinic doc-tors needed by Community Health Centre according to the Need and Demand Method.Conclusion:The development direction of community health resource allocation in Xicheng District should change from increasing the number of institutions and medical staff simply to emphasizing on the bal-anced distribution of resources among the streets and improve the community health service according to the demographic characteristics of streets.%目的：分析北京市西城区社区卫生资源配置现状，预测并探讨2020年社区卫生资源配置规模。方法：利用人口预测方法预测西城区2020年常住人口规模，利用指标法、需要和需求法预测西城区社区卫生资源配置情况。结果：到2020年西城区最多需要社区卫生服务机构67所、执业医师人员194名、注册护士人员239名；按照需要和需求预测法分析，需要门诊医师1079－1737名，高于目前提供的社区卫生服务人力资源。结论：西城区社区医疗卫生资源配置的发展方向应从单纯增加机构、卫生人员数量，转变为更加注重资源在各街道间分布的均衡性，根据各街道的人口特点，提升社区卫生服务水平。