利用NCEP 4次/d的1°×1°FNL再分析资料、自动站资料、多普勒天气雷达资料、GRAPES_36 km模式预报资料,从天气学的角度分析研究了2010年6月28日强降水的成因.分析结果表明,此次强降水系由于南海季风槽建立造成,实况形势分析和物理量场诊断都符合南海季风槽的特征.强降水的辐合上升运动十分之明显,水汽辐合高值区与暴雨落区一致,强降水伴随南海季风槽建立同时发生.GRAPES_36 km模式对此次季风槽形势预报、物理结构描述得相当清晰,暴雨落区对应的高能区、强烈辐合区,模式描述相当准确,模式的提前量能够保证对此次季风槽造成的强降水作出提前预报.%By using the 1°× 1° FNL 4-times daily reanalysis data, automatic weather station data, Doppler weather radar data and GRAPES_36km mesoscale numerical prediction model data, a severe precipitation case on June 28, 2010 was analyzed. Results showed that the severe precipitation was caused by the South China Sea monsoon trough (SCSMT). Both real-time analysis and diagnostic calculations verified that the heavy rainfall was characteristically related to SCSMT. The GRAPES_36km Model well predicted the severe rainfall process. Heavy rainfall occurred simultaneously with the outbreak of SCS monsoon trough. The numerical prediction provided sufficient lead time for the rainfall forecast.
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