进入中国的FDI的行为变迁对国际收支的影响研究

摘要

近年来,进入中国的FDI不断从出口导向型向市场寻求型转变,快速抢占中国市场。本文通过建立差分模型,考察FDI这一行为变迁对国际收支的影响。研究表明以占领东道国市场为目的FDI将在长时期内不断削减FDI产生的净出口效应,使得东道国国际收支顺差不断减小,且随着寻求市场型FDI存量占FDI的比重不断增大,极有可能导致FDI产生的国际收支净效益转为逆差,甚至引发国际收支危机。%Recent years has seen a continuous shift from export-oriented FDI to market-seeking FDI in china in order to occupy the Chinese market.This paper introduces a simple difference model to investigate the impact of FDI behavior changes on the balance of payments.The research indicates that as HFDI increases in domestic market,the level of net exports brought by FDI will be incessantly put down and cause the decreasing of the surplus of balance of payments;what＇s worse,as the proportion of HDI in FDI increases,the net effect of balance of payments brought by the FDI will very likely become deficit and even lead to a balance-of-payment crisis.