外商直接投资区位选择与风险分析

摘要

本文提出一种新的基于组合熵权TOPSIS方法的多目标决策模型,综合考虑市场、成本、聚集和制度等相关因素,对山东省17个地区的经济发展水平及其与外商直接投资区位选择关系进行分析。在模型中,我们首先应用熵权法得到各评价准则和因素的相对权重,然后应用TOPSIS方法对山东省17个地区进行排序。本文还结合实例说明如何将所提出的方法应用到外商直接投资在中国的区位选择问题。此外,我们还进行了敏感性分析,以判断各评价准则受权重的影响程度。研究结果和实例分析表明基于组合熵权TOPSIS方法在外商直接投资区位选择分析中是有效和可行的。%This paper proposes an integrated approach which combines the entropy method and the technique for order performance based on similarity to the ideal solution（TOPSIS） for multiple objective decision making.The relationship between economic development level of Shandong Province＇s 17 areas and the foreign direct investment location choice is analyzed by considering the factors related to market,cost,cities cluster and investment policies.In the proposed approach,the entropy method is introduced to determine the relative weighting of assessment criteria,and the TOPSIS approach is employed to rank 17 areas of China＇s Shandong province for the overall performance.A numerical example is examined to illustrate how to apply the proposed method to rank the foreign direct investment location choice in China.Furthermore,we conduct the sensitivity analysis to identify how much each weight influences the final decision.Research results and case study show that the integrated approach is effective and feasible in the location choice of foreign direct investment.