丝绸之路经济带背景下上海合作组织国家贸易自由化的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟分析

摘要

推进上海合作组织相关国家的贸易自由化,是加快丝绸之路经济带沿线国家互联互通建设的战略选择之一.本文基于GTAP模型和情景模拟方法,分析了上海合作组织相关国家贸易自由化的经济效应,以及对中国和“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家各国间贸易关系的影响.模拟结果表明,上海合作组织相关国家贸易自由化,可以有效应对俄-白-哈关税同盟对中国和相关国家经济和贸易带来的冲击,有助于提升中国和“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家的经济和各国间的贸易合作关系,从而推进“一带一路”战略构想的实施.并且,随着自由贸易区范围从上海合作组织成员国扩大到上海合作组织相关的所有国家,中国以及“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家的经济和各国间的贸易合作关系会更为受益.%Promoting the trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states is one of strategic options to accelerate the interconnectivity construction of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt.Based on the GTAP model and scenario simulation,this paper analyzes the economic effects of trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states,as well as the influence of trade relations between China and countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt.The simulation results show that,the trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states can help China and relevant countries effectively deal with the impact from Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union,help to improve the economy of China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the trade relationship among these countries,so as to promote the implementation of strategic conception of" One Belt and One Road".And as the scope of free trade area from member states expands to all relevant countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO),the economy of China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the trade relation among these countries would gain more benefits.