基于灰色组合模型的区域物流需求预测研究

摘要

In this paper, we analyzed systematically the relationship between regional logistics demand and related influence factors, established the GM( 1,1) and GM(0,N) monomial forecasting model and, further, the combinatorial model based on minimal variance principle. This combinatorial model had overcome compromised accuracy of monomial forecasting, stringent conditions of application and other restrictions and remedied the shortcoming of the simple combination of multiple mono-factor methods for regional logistics demand forecasting. Finally we used an empirical analysis to validate the effectiveness of the combinatorial forecasting model.%系统分析区域物流需求与相关影响因素关系,建立GM(1,1)、GM(0,N)单项预测模型,基于方差最小化准则构建组合模型,该组合模型克服了单项预测精度及适用条件等局限,改进了现有区域物流需求预测组合模型单因素多种方法简单组合的不足.最后采用2001-2009年安徽省物流需求数据进行实证分析,验证了组合预测模型的有效性.