基于周期分解的圆形分布法分析我国流行性乙型脑炎季节特征

摘要

目的：探讨基于周期分解的圆形分布法在分析我国流行性乙型脑炎（乙脑）季节特征方面应用的可行性。方法：先使用周期分解法对我国2005年至2014年乙脑发病的季节特征进行分解，再用圆形分布法验证分解出来的季节指数的季节性特征。结果：2005年至2014年我国乙脑发病数呈下降的趋势；乙脑发病呈现出明显的季节性，发病高发日在8月16日，高峰期在7月至9月，流行期在6月至10月。结论：我国乙脑发病具有明显的季节性。满足圆形分布法的应用条件时，基于周期分解的圆形分布法在了解传染病季节特征方面具有较好的应用价值。%Aim: To explore the feasibility of application of circular distribution method based on seasonal decomposi -tion in analysis on seasonal feature of epidemic encephalitis B in China .Methods: The data of monthly incidence of epi -demic encephalitis B from 2005 to 2014 in China was collected and the seasonal feature were split out by seasonal decompo -sition.Then the circular distribution method was used to verify the seasonal feature of seasonal factor split out by seasonal decomposition.Results: Epidemic encephalitis B decreased from 2005 to 2014 in China; epidemic encephalitis B presen-ted an obvious seasonality in China , the peak day was August 16th,the crest time was from July to September and the epi -demic time was from June to October.Conclusion: Epidemic encephalitis B exists an obvious seasonality in China and pre -vention and control work should be undertaken around the peak ;Under the precondition of meeting the application condi -tions of circular distribution method, circular distribution method based on seasonal decomposition has a good practical val -ue for understanding seasonal feature of infectious disease .