1960—2015年两广地区夏季高温热浪变化特征

摘要

Based on the daily highest temperature data of Guangdong and Guangxi in summer from 1960 to 2015, using the trend analysis,correlation analysis,and climate tendency rate,IDW spatial interpolation methods,we study the time-space variation tendency of summer heat waves and its influence in recent 56 years.The results show that:(1)From 1960 to 2015,the days of high temperature,heat wave frequency,strong heat waves are increased, and the growth rate of Guangdong province is far higher than Guangxi.(2 )The distribution of high temperature days and heat waves exhibit a zonal feature.The high temperature days in the south are less than that in the north region,presenting an increasing trend from the coast to the inland.Besides,the number of harm high temperature days increases from the southeast coast to the northwest inland and the frequency of strong heat waves decreases from the junction of the two areas to the coastal areas.(3)The variation rate of high temperature day is generally increasing during the 56 years,while its spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from Guiping,Luoding,Guangning,Luoning, Guangzhou,Zengcheng,Lianping to their peripheral regions.The variation rate of harm high temperature days presents the similar trend from Luoding,Gaoyao,Guangning,Babu,Lianzhou to their peripheral regions.The increasing trend of heat wave variation rate of Guangdong province is more apparent.The variation rate of strong heat weaves is increasing from Luoding,Guangning,Lianzhou to their peripheral regions.(4)The index of the Tibetan plateau,India-burmese trough intensity present a strong correlation with heat wave events in Guangdong and Guangxi.The heat wave events of Guangdong and Guangxi have an apparent positive correlation.%基于两广地区44个气象站夏季日最高气温资料,运用相关性分析、IDW插值等方法,研究了1960—2015年两广地区夏季高温热浪变化趋势.结果表明:(1)近56a,两广地区高温日、高温热浪频次、强高温热浪频次均呈增加趋势,其中广东省增长率远高于广西壮族自治区.(2)在空间上,高温日数南部少北部多,由沿海向内陆递增;危害高温日从东南沿海向西北内陆递增;强高温热浪频次自2省交界处向四周递减,且沿海地区较低,内陆较高.(3)在空间变化上,高温日变化率以增加趋势为主,且自桂平-罗定-广宁-罗宁-广州-增城-连平一带向四周递减;危害高温日变化率自罗定-高要-广宁-八步-连州一带向四周递减;广东省高温热浪变化率增加趋势更为明显;强高温热浪变化率由罗定-广宁-连州一线向四周递增.(4)两广高温热浪事件与西藏高原指数、印缅槽强度指数相关性较强,高温热浪事件在广西壮族自治区与广东省具有显著的正相关性.