阶段任务系统可靠性分析30 a研究进展

摘要

A Phased Mission System (PMS) was defined as a system,which was subject to multiple,consecutive,non-overlapping phases of operation.The reliability analysis of PMS had been considered tasks of primary relevance,and many different approaches had been developed during the past thirty years.A summary of the PMS reliability analysis technologies considered in the literatures was presented,including traditional fault tree analysis,BDD based fault tree analysis,HCTMC based state space analysis and MRP based state space analysis.Finally,research directions and open questions in this area were also discussed.%阶段任务系统(Phased Mission Systems,PMS)的应用几乎渗透到现代人类社会的各种关键应用领域,其可靠性分析是一个非常重要的研究课题.对PMS可靠性分析30 a的发展情况作了简要的概括和总结,介绍了30多年里PMS可靠性分析所涉及的核心研究点,包括树结构分析、BDD分析、HCTMC分析和MRP分析；深入分析了它的发展现状和目前所存在的问题；从推动PMS可靠性分析应用和发展的角度出发,展望了未来的研究方向.