泰安气候舒适度与入境客流量季节变化的相关分析

摘要

Using the monthly climate data of Tai’an City in the past 30 years(1980 ~2010),the article calculates Climate Comfortable Degreeof Taiˊan City,and points out the period from April to October and the period fromSeptember to October is the most appropriate tourism periods. Based on the data of Monthly Inbound Tourist from 2010 to 2014,using OLS method,the paper establish a linear regression equation,and the results shows MonthlyInbound Tourists Index and Climate Comfort Degreeis interrelated,andthe elastic coefficient attains 0. 933. With Grey Correlation Analysis Method ,the correlationcoefficientis is cal-culated between Monthly Inbound Tourists Indexand Temperature Humidity Index,Wind Effect Index,ICL and Comprehensive Comfort Index,and the correlationcoefficientisbetweenInbound TouristsMonthlyIndex and Wind Effect Index is maximum,and it attains 0. 623.%利用泰安1980年~2010年的月度气候数据，计算泰安气候舒适度指数，分析泰安的最适游期为4月~5月和9月~10月；结合2010年~2014年泰安入境客流量月值数，采用OLS回归分析的方法建立线性回归方程，结果显示：泰安入境旅游客流量和气候舒适度呈高度相关关系，弹性系数高达0.933；用关联度分析方法分析泰安入境旅游客流量和温湿指数、风效指数、着衣指数及综合的舒适度指数之间的关联程度，发现入境旅游客流量和风效指数的关联系数最大，为0.623.