回归分析方法预测某市HIV／AIDS流行趋势的应用研究

摘要

According to the provided data by the center for disease prevention and control, we establish the prediction model for the added persons year after year and those new added persons though sexual transmission of the HIV/AIDS by using the regression analysis method. And it is predicted that the HIV/AIDS development tends in next three years are the added number of the HIV/AIDS tending to be stable but having some increase and the HIV/AIDS proportion of sexually transmitted increasing fast. And the sexual transmission has become a major way of HIV/AIDS transmission.%根据疾病预防控制中心提供的数据，应用回归分析的方法，建立了某市HIV／AIDS逐年新增人数预测模型和经性传播HIV／AIDS新增人数预测模型，并分析得出该市未来3年HIV／AIDS的发展趋势：HIV／AIDS新增人数逐年趋于平稳，但是仍有上升的迹象；经性传播HIV／AIDS新增人数比例逐年上升且速度较快，性传播HIV／AIDS已逐渐成为该市HIV／AIDS传播的主要途径。