欠发达地区农业收益与农业从业人员动态变化——以江西省为例

摘要

运用E—G两步法协整检验、向量误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数在内的时间序列分析方法，对1984—2008年江西省农业收益与农业从业人员的动态关系进行计量分析。研究结果表明：农业从业率与农业贡献率之间存在长期稳定关系，农业贡献率与农业从业率之间存在着单向的格兰杰因果关系，农业贡献率变动显著地影响着实际农业就业率的变动，但农业从业率变动并不能显著地影响实际农业贡献率的变动。%This paper analysize the dynamic relationship between agriculture income and agriculture practitioners in Jiangxi Province from 1984 to 2008 by the time series analysis method such as E - G two - step cointegration test, vector error correction model, granger causality test and impulse response function. The results of the study show that: Long- term stable relationship exists in rate of agricultural employment rate and agricultural contribution rate. The one -way granger causality relationship exists in them. Changing of agricultural contribution rate signifi- cantly affects the changing of actual agricultural employment rate, but the changing of actual agricultural employ- ment rate does not significantly affect changing of the actual agricultural contribution rate.