新疆和谐社会建设中人口数量和质量的替代研究

摘要

目的：探讨新疆人口发展问题，提出控制人口数量和提高人口质量的相关建议，为新疆和谐社会建设中的人口发展政策制定提供参考。方法查阅人口普查资料和统计年鉴资料，获取1990－2010年的总和生育率和人口自然增长情况，利用家庭经济学理论所阐述的人口数量与人口质量替代原理，通过定性和定量相结合的方法分析新疆人口增长历程。结果新疆人口数量增长较快，特别是少数民族人口增长更快，人口自然增长率高达18．62‰。相比人口数量，新疆人口文化素质有了很大提高，但占总人口60％的少数民族人口科学文化素质依然较低。结论新疆和谐社会的建设需要人口质量对人口数量的替代，替代措施的重点是控制人口数量和提高教育水平。%Objective With the population number of Xinxiang growing rapidly,population quantity and quality have been changed.It is to investigate the problem of population improvement of Xinjiang to put forward suggestions to control quantity and improve quality of population for the construction of a harmo-nious society in Xinjiang.Methods Refer to census and survey data to get the total birth rate and natural growth from 1990 to 2010 and utilize the substitution principle on the population quality instead of quantity elaborated from home economics theory,and then analyze the Xinjiang population growth process through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.Results The population in Xinjiang grow very quickly,especially the minority population whose natural growth reaches 18.62‰.The integral population quality in Xinjiang has been greatly improved,however the quality of minority,who accounts for 60% of the total population is still lower.Conclusion The construction of the harmonious society in Xinjiang needs the substitution of quality to quantity of population.The priority of the substitute action is to control the population quantity and raise the education level.