陕西省城市化与第三产业发展的互动关系分析

摘要

Based on the theory of the Unit Root Test and Co-integration test, this paper conducts an empirical research on the long term relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shaanxi province. The results show that the long term equilibrium relationship exists between the level of urbanization and the proportion of value added by the tertiary industry, and that 1999 is a turning point, before and after which the elastic coefficient between the two was reverse. From the Granger causality test results, the level of urbanization Granger causes the tertiary industry growth, and is a stable one-way causal relationship. Finally some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the tertiary industry and urbanization development in Shaanxi province%　　利用单位根平稳性检验和协整检验的理论，对陕西省第三产业与城市化发展之间的长期关系进行实证分析。结果显示，两者之间存在长期均衡关系，但1999年为结构突变点，前后两阶段二者弹性系数相反。格兰杰检验表明，城市化是第三产业的Granger原因，并且是稳定的单向因果关系。最后，提出了未来陕西省第三产业与城市化发展的若干对策建议。