我国货币政策传导机制效应分析

摘要

从西方货币政策传导机制理论出发，分别利用货币供应量、实际利率与各个宏观经济变量建立两组VAR模型，并以脉冲响应法和方差分解法进一步分析了货币供应量、实际利率与GDP、房地产投资、CPI之间的关系，结果表明：货币供应量受房地产投资和GDP的影响为正向作用，CPI对货币供应量的作用具有反向作用。实际利率对GDP和房地产投资、CPI的影响为负作用，因此，实际利率的提高会减少投资，进而影响GDP的增长，使收入减少、消费缩紧、CPI降低。%From the theory of western monetary policy transmission mechanism,the paper established two groups of VAR models by using money supply,real interest rates and macroeconomic variables,and then ana-lyzed the relationship between money supply,real interest rates and GDP,real estate investment,as well as CPI by means of impulse response and variance decomposition analyses. Empirical analysis shows that the mon-ey supply has the positive effect on real estate investment and GDP while the CPI has reverse effect on the money supply. Meanwhile,real interest rates have negative effect on GDP,real estate investment,and CPI. Therefore,for the increase of real interest rates can reduce investment,affect the growth of the GDP,lower the citizen's income,tighten the consumption and decrease the CPI.