运用生态承载力评价模型、响应模型和空间频数分异测度模型对洞庭湖区生态承载力进行时空分析，结果表明：近10年来洞庭湖区生态承载力整体上呈现“U”型变化趋势；空间格局上，从西南向东北依次呈现“较高—低—高—低—较高”的“W”字型格局；区域响应上，4种不同响应状态反映出县域经济发展、社会进步、资源利用和环境质量的协调性较差，生态系统潜在压力较大。因此，应创新体制机制，化解经济社会发展与生态系统承载之间的矛盾；加强生态系统调控和景观生态规划，维持生态系统的弹性力；转变产业发展模式，提高生态系统服务价值；树立以人为本、以生态为导向的发展观；抓住区域发展战略与政策的机遇，全面提高生态承载力。%This paper makes a temporal and spatial analysis of the ecological carrying capacity in the Dongting Lake area from 2001 to 2010 by using ecological carrying capacity evaluation model and ecological carrying capacity response model. The results show that: As a whole, the ecological carrying capacity of the Dongting lake area presents shape–U change trend in recent 10 years. The spatial pattern of ecological carrying capacity presents shape -W pattern state from the southwest to the northeast. The response status of ecological carrying capacity in 17 counties was divided into four categories of strong overload, overload, weak low-load and low-load, which reflects that coordination of economic development, social progress, resource use and environmental quality were poor at the level of regional development. Based on the above analysis results, we should take corresponding developmental strategy: The first is the innovation of system mechanism, which can resolve the contradiction between economic and social development and ecological system bearing; the second is to strengthen the ecological system regulation and the programming of landscape ecology, to maintain the elastic force of ecological system; the third is to change pattern of industrial devel-opment, to improve the ecosystem service value; the fourth is the people-oriented, meanwhile we should set up the e-cological oriented development; at last, we seize the opportunity of regional development strategy and policy, and in-crease the ecological carrying capacity.
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