交通项目系统风险定量预测及管理

摘要

The huge scale of capital investment and diversification of the investors are the two most sig-nificant characters in nowadays freeway construction in China .So economic and benefit risk assess-ment and prediction of freeway project research has attracted more and more attentions from bank , government ,researchers ,engineers ,and private investors .Economic and benefit risk assessment and prediction of freeway project is directly relate to the problem of how to balance the supply of transpor-tation to ensure the need of society and economy ,and ensure the invest profit of the project at the same time .According to management system engineering method ,the related indexes accounting to e-conomic and benefit evaluation and financial result are selected ,and with the help of elementary catas-trophe theory and the method of risk list method ,trains of conclusions and explanation on risk venture prediction are given in this paper .%巨大的投资规模和多样化的经营模式是我国现阶段交通项目建设的2大特征，对于其中存在的经济和效益风险进行定量预测是进行风险防范与规避的前提和基础。文中以高速公路建设项目为对象，建立了相应的风险预测指标体系，采用突变理论与方法对包括运营风险、还贷风险与效益风险在内的高速公路建设项目系统风险进行了定量预测，并利用风险列表方法进行了分析。