基于离差最大化原理的航班延误风险分级研究

摘要

基于航班延误历史数据统计分析与数据挖掘技术，利用一种新的离差最大化客观赋权法对延误指标进行客观赋权，结合主观层次赋权法，对延误指标进行主客观加权赋权；最后运用多等级模糊综合评价法对航班环中的航班延误进行风险分级，使延误分级更合理。研究结果表明，航空延误的有效分级可以控制延误传播范围，使延误在局域得到解决方案。%Based on flight delays statistical analysis of historical data and data mining techniques ,using a new deviation maximize the objective weighting method delays indicators ,and then combined with the subjective level of empowerment method ,the paper weights empowerment of subjective and objec-tive for delay indicators ;Finally ,the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to flight delays in the ring for risk graded ,make the delay grading more reasonable .The research results show that the effective flight delays grading can control delay propagation range ,so that delays can be solved in local solutions ;flight delays grading provide a theoretical reference for the research on the flight connections turnaround time margin .