基于盲数理论的我国海上战略通道安全风险评价

摘要

In this paper ,unascertained measure of affecting factors was dependent on Delphi method , the weights of affecting factors were got by comparison matrix ,both them contributed to the compre-hensive model of unascertained measure .T hen according to the given evaluation criteria ,level of safe-ty risk of sea lanes was known .A risk assessment on Malacca Strait ,one of China's major sea lanes was conducted and it came up the result that Malacca Strait was on a dangerous security level ,verif-ying the effectiveness of blind number model .Therefore ,this paper provided a new idea for the risk assessment of strategic sea lanes .%对我国海上战略通道进行安全风险评价是保障海上通道安全的重要环节。由于海上战略通道的安全风险具有多种不确定性，故可运用盲数理论建立我国海上战略通道安全风险等级评价的盲数模型。通过专家打分的方法对影响因素进行未确知测度，构造判断矩阵获得影响因素的权重，从而得到模型的综合未确知测度，根据既定的评价准则获得海上通道的安全风险级别。文中对我国重要的海上通道马六甲海峡进行了安全风险评价，其评价结果为：马六甲海峡的安全级别为较危险级别，验证了该盲数模型的有效性。