依托上海市南北高架西侧的交通流数据，引入生存分析方法，建立基于风险的交通拥堵持续时间模型。其根据大量交通拥堵样本的时间属性，采用Kaplan-M eyer非参数回归模型定量估计拥堵持续时间，并按星期数、高峰时段、数据年限、样本位置和天气划分五类影响因素，从生存函数和危险函数两个方面，分析拥堵持续时间的时空分布特性。结果表明上海市南北高架西侧的交通拥堵持续时间70％能在1小时内消散，在不同类别的影响因素下分布特性存在明显差异。%Based on the historical traffic data of the west-side North-South Viaduct in Shanghai ,this paper introduces survival analysis into the analysis of traffic congestion mechnism ,and a hazard-based traffic congestion duration time model is presentd .This model analyzes the time attributes of many traffic congestion samples ,and employs nonparametric regression-based Kaplan-Meyer model to esti-mate traffic congestion duration time .Then ,the key influence factors of traffic congestion are divided into five types including weekdays ,peak time ,data year ,location and weather ,and the spatial-tem-poral distribution characteristics of traffic congestion duration time is analyzed .Analsis results has shown that the 70% of traffic congestion durations on road segments of west-side North-South Via-duct are no longer than an hour ,and there exists significant difference of distribution characteristics under different influence factors .
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