基于N-K模型的空中交通安全耦合风险分析

摘要

The coupling situations among human factors, equipment factors, environment factors and management factors were analyzed. These factors affect air traffic safety. By Using the N - K model, occurrence probability and the value at risk of the single factor coupling,two -factor coupling and multi -factor coupling were calculated separately with reference to the unsafe events occurred in the ATC in China over the past decade. Then the status of safety risks in air traffic control were assessed according to the value at risk. In this way,it provided new ideas and methods to ATC safety risk manasement.%对影响空中交通安全的人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素耦合的情况进行了分析,并结合我国近10年来发生的空管不安全事件,利用N-K模型,分别计算出单因素耦合、双因素耦合、多因素耦合发生的概率及风险值.根据风险值大小评估空管安全风险状态,从而为空管安全风险管理提供了新的思路和方法.