Risk analysis based on logistic model for large bridge traffic safety under disaster weather

摘要

In order to keep a safe operation on large bridge for vehicles, the traffic safety risk of large bridge under disaster weather was analyzed. By investigating the traffic accident data and the field data, the factors influencing traffic accidents severity under disaster weather were discussed. An orderly logistic risk model was proposed with the traffic jam status as the dependent variable; the categories, duration, severity of the disaster weather and traffic flow rate as independent variables. The severity, duration and date of the weather are attributed to risk consequence among which the weather date has the greatest impact followed with the other two factors. The model is validated by the field data collected from Su Tong Bridge. The factors and their impact severity are analyzed comparatively between bridge and road.