网络口碑传播已成为影响企业宣传营销、消费者购买决策的重要形式,与大部分研究强调意见领袖在网络口碑传播中的积极作用不同,意见领袖在网络口碑传播中既可以视为一种资源和动力,又带有障碍因素.运用系统动力学的方法阐述意见领袖视角下网络口碑传播的因果关系,构建了系统动力学模型,并进行系统仿真,验证了意见领袖对网络口碑传播效果的灵敏性.结果表明:系统动力学模型能够较好地模拟实际中意见领袖视角下的网络口碑传播过程,能较好地拟合意见领袖对网络口碑传播的"抛物线"型影响,并分析了意见领袖度在网络口碑传播的正负两方面影响,为人们利用网络口碑传播提供有效的决策支持.%Internet word-of-mouth diffusion has become an important in influencing the enterprise′s publicity of marketing and consumer′s purchasing decision. While most of the researchers emphasize the positive role of opinion leaders in word-of-mouth network, this paper argues that opinion leader in network word-of-mouth can be regarded as both a kind of resources, motivations and obstacles. Using system dynamics to analyze the Internet word of mouth with opinion leader causal relationship. Furthermore, a system dynamics model is established. Vensim is used to simulate and test validation and sensitivity of the model. The simulation results show that the model could either fit the practical Internet word of mouth with opinion leader,but also can well fit the "parabolic" influence of opinion leaders on the internet word-of-mouth communication, and analyze the influence of opinion leaders on internet word of mouth spread both positive and negative impact for people to use Internet word of mouth to provide effective communication and decision support.
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