The new product diffusion with negative word-of-mouth’s spread based on system dynamics and multi-agent simulation

摘要

New product promoted in the market is under many risks, and negative word-of-mouth affects the risk seriously. The enterprises often neglect the consumers’ negative word-of-mouth, and as a result it leads to shrinkage in market. In order to study the negative impact on market risk in new product diffusion, in this paper, the multi-agent and system dynamics models have been established to simulate it. The two results are compared. Through simulation experiments, the new product diffusing process is affected obviously by the negative word-of-mouth. The diffusing process is sensitive to the probability of negative word-of-mouth and produce life cycle. The two results are the same to show the impact of negative word-of-mouth, and the two simulation ways can testify the effectiveness by each other.