The paper holds that previous researches on farmland are confined to any one area of ecological, eco-nomic, social or some fields, or they may split the relationship between the three. In this research, energy ecological footprint model is used to analyze the eco-economic system of farmlands in southwest region of Shandong province. It effectively links the three aspects with a united measurement, which overcomes the defect of previous researches; the production factor method is obtained by using the "province hectare", the result approximates the real situation;the re-search also fills up the blanks in the field of sustainable utilization of cultivated land in the southwest of Shandong province. Also, the sustainable index of cultivated land is estimated with gray prediction theory. The results show that the ecological capacity of the cultivated land per capita is low while the ecological coverage per capita is high. Thus, in all, it is in a state of deficits ecologically and fairly unsustainable in development. The prediction model forecast that cultivated land will reach the medium level of unsustainability in the long term. So the local government of southwest region of Shandong province should focus on the quantity and quality of cultivated land as well as population and im-prove the sustainable utilization of the cultivated land.%传统的耕地研究往往只局限于生态、经济、社会的某一领域或某两个领域，或者割裂了三者的关系，运用能值———生态足迹模型分析鲁西南地区耕地生态经济系统，以统一的度量指标有效地将三者联系起来，克服了传统研究的缺陷；产量因子采用“省公顷”计算方法，结果更加贴近现实；同时研究弥补了鲁西南耕地可持续利用研究的空白。并利用灰色预测理论对耕地可持续指数作了预测。结果表明：鲁西南耕地人均生态承载力较低，而人均生态足迹较高，整体表现为生态赤字，耕地处于强不可持续发展状态，预测长期内会进入中等不可持续等级。应致力于耕地数量、质量及人口方面，改善鲁西南耕地的可持续利用状况。
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