基于三次指数平滑法的沪牌拍卖月均价预测

摘要

As the enhancement of living standard and the influx of talents,the competition of the license plate auction in Shanghai is increasingly fierce.So the short-term prediction on the average price has high practical significance.By analyzing the correlation between the drop number,bidders number,historical data and other influential factors respectively,it is found that the short-term prediction using historical data is most effective.Accordingly,based on the three exponential smoothing method and dynamic three exponential smoothing method,using the historical data of license plate monthly average prices from January to October in 2016,the prices in November and December have been predicted.Besides,by analyzing the prediction data,it is shown that the dynamic three exponential smoothing method is better than the three exponential smoothing method.Therefore,it is concluded that using the dynamic three exponential smoothing method and historical data to predict the monthly average price of the license plate can provide an effective guidance for the bidding price of license plate.%随着人们生活水平的提高以及国内外人才向上海的大量涌入,上海车牌拍卖竞争越发激烈,因此对拍牌成交月均价的短期预测具有较高的现实意义.通过对投放数量、投标人数、历史数据等影响因素与成交月均价进行相关性分析发现,利用历史数据进行短期预测最为有效.据此,基于传统的三次指数平滑法和动态三次指数平滑法,利用2016年1～10月上海车牌拍卖成交月均价的历史数据,预测了2016年11月和12月沪牌拍卖成交月均价.同时,通过对预测误差进行分析得到动态三次指数平滑法要优于三次指数平滑法.从而得出,基于动态三次指数平滑法,利用历史数据对车牌月均价进行短期预测,能为车牌拍卖出价提供有效指导.