制造企业物流处于由传统配销向综合物流过渡阶段,选用何种物流经营模式需要企业根据自身状况和综合因素进行判断,正确的物流决策至关重要.本文应用构思分析法对企业物流经营进行模式构造,选取了制造类企业物流经营模式决策的三层构思变量为社会物流需求、第三方物流水平和企业物流基础,构思可行性方案集为27个,划分为第三方物流、混合物流、自营物流和产业化物流四组备选方案.提出了应用决策树方法解决单个企业的多阶段决策问题.以钢铁制造企业为例,应用风险问题决策的损益矩阵计算各构思方案的期望值.研究认为,我国钢铁企业的物流经营首选方案为混合物流模式.%Manufacturing logistics is in transition from traditional distribution to integrated logistics. According to the enterprise' s status and combination of factors, it is essential to make correct decision of the logistics business model. This paper develops logistics business mode by scenario for manufacturing enterprises. It selects the logistics needs of the community, the level of third-party logistics and logistics foundation as three-tier idea of variable. Totally 27 feasible option sets are formed and divided into third-party logistics, logistics mix, self-logistics and industrial logistics. The decision tree method is proposed to solve the multistage decision of single enterprise, with steel manufacturing enterprises for example. The profit and loss value matrix of risk decision-making are applied to calculate the expected value of the idea of program, and the comparison shows mixed logistic model is more suitable for China' s steel enterprises.
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