首页> 中文期刊> 《交通运输系统工程与信息》 >基于Logsum差异和嵌套Logit模型的交通出行者效益测算研究

基于Logsum差异和嵌套Logit模型的交通出行者效益测算研究

         

摘要

Transport policy, project investment and management measures usually impact on travelers’ behavior, and then play a role on the economic benefits in transportation system. It is necessary to scientifically evaluate the influences and estimate the user benefits. From the analysis of the commonly used methods to estimate user benefits in transportation economics, this paper focuses on the methodology based on Logsum difference and consumer surplus. It builds a nested Logit model structure of travel decision-making from destination choice, mode choice and route choice through upper level to lower, and gives the mathematical descriptions and expressions of traveler utility and probability, and then proposes the formulas to estimate traveler benefits based on a nested Logit model and Logsum difference;it also establishes a base scenario and 5 alternative scenarios in an example and calculates the traveler benefits(or losts) across scenarios using Logsum method, and compares its results to rule-of-half method. Results show that the monetized differences in Logsums gives a more exact result for traveler benefits than rule-of-half when there is a big change on the variables compared to base scenario.%交通政策,项目投资及管理措施等会对交通系统出行者的行为方式产生影响,进而影响系统出行者的经济效益,因此需要科学估计和合理测算。从交通经济领域效益估算的常用方法着手,在对传统基于rule-of-half的效益测算方法进行分析的基础上,重点探讨基于Logsum差异的效益测算方法。构建出行决策的3层嵌套Logit模型,从目的地—方式—路径选择角度建立出行者的效用表达式及方式选择模型,提出基于嵌套Logit模型和Logsum差异的效益测算方法;结合案例和情景分析验证方法的应用,并与传统测算方法进行比较。结果表明,当自变量相对基准情况有较大变化时,rule-of-half方法和Logsum方法的计算结果会有较大差异,在需求非线性变化情况下,基于Logsum差异的测算结果更为合理。

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