为了科学评价区域道路交通安全水平，为制定更符合实际的道路交通安全发展战略和管理策略提供依据，利用复相关分析建立了区域道路交通安全评价指标体系；基于数据包络分析原理，在BC2基本模型的基础上，引入偏好信息，建立了面向面板数据、只有非期望输出、权重受限的道路交通安全广义DEA评价模型，并对中国等9个国家2000—2012年的道路交通安全水平进行了评价。研究显示，2000年以来，中国道路交通安全形势逐渐转好，但距国际先进水平还有一定差距，而且改善幅度逐渐放缓，应继续加强道路交通安全工作。通过与不同方法的对比，本文所建立模型的评价结果与实际符合性更好。%To evaluate regional transportation safety scientifically and provide basis for formulating road traffic safety strategy, this paper builds the regional road traffic safety evaluation index system with analysis of multiple correlation. A road traffic safety evaluation generalized DEA model is established to face panel data and produce only unexceptional results based on theory of partially ordered sets and data envelopment analysis. This model is used to evaluate the traffic safety level of 9 target nations from 2000 to 2012. Research shows that: since 2000, the Chinese traffic safety level gradually turns for the better, but there is still a certain gap from the international advanced level, and improvement rate is slowing, the traffic safety management should be continued to strengthen. Comparing with other methods, the results of evaluation model of this paper proposed is in good conformity with reality.
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