基于排队论的内河港口水域锚位需求量计算方法

摘要

In this paper, the desired amount of anchor berth in inland river port is researched. Based on analyzing the working process of the ships in inland river port, the influence factors of the desired amount of anchor berth are refined. The key data is forecasted by use of time series method. Anchoring assurance rate and anchorage utilization rate in port are calculated by using queuing theory, and the model of the desired amount of anchor berth in inland river port is constructed in consideration of the above two aspects. Moreover, the modeling method is deduced and verified aiming at an inland port. The calculation result shows that the model has better application in anchoring berth planning in inland port.%对内河港口水域锚位需求量进行研究.通过对船舶在内河港口的工作过程进行分析,提炼了港口锚位需求量的影响因素,并采用时间序列方法对影响因素中的关键数据进行预测,运用排队论的方法对锚泊保证率和港口水域锚地利用率进行了计算,在综合考虑锚泊保证率和港口水域锚地利用率的基础上,建立了内河港口水域锚位需求量计算模型,并以某一内河港口为例,对建模方法进行了演绎和验证.计算结果表明,该模型在内河港口锚位规划方面有较好的应用价值.