铁路货运OD模糊推算应用技术研究

摘要

结合我国区域铁路货运的特点，对可获取的多种来源的数据与信息进行了分析，并用于基年货运OD矩阵的推算。在对已有相关研究成果进行综述的基础上，建立了基于模糊规划理论的多源信息0D推算模型及相应的求解算法，提出了利用铁路枢纽货物交流表推算初始OD矩阵的计算方法，并通过江苏省铁路货运OD推算进行了实践验证。研究表明，模糊数学方法的引入有助于解决多源信息带来的两类不确定性问题，基于多源信息能够有效的进行OD初始阵的计算，与传统路段交通量反推OD技术相比，多源数据的各自权重显著影响OD矩阵的最终推算精度。%Aiming at calculating a regional-area railway freight OD multi-source data and information were first analyzed. After matrix, the available a brief review, a multi-information OD calculation model based on fuzzy planning theory as well as a heuristic solution algorithm was presented. Then, aprior OD calculation method according to regional railway freight exchange table was introduced. A case study was done in Jiangsu province. It was proved that multi-source information could take advantage in regional railway freight OD calculation and improve the precision of the calculation method, especially when data was scarce. Compared with the other OD calculation models, the usefulness of the fuzzy mathematics method in solving the uncertainty problem caused by the introduction of multi-source information and the criticalness of weights of different types of data for accuracy of OD calculation were also proved.