禁宵对年轻驾驶员的安全倾向性影响

摘要

The objective of the study is to assess the effectiveness of Michigan＇ s graduated driver licensing （GDL） program in terms of driving curfew with the use of the quasi-induced exposure technique. The effectiveness of Michigan＇ s GLD program is reflected in two dimensions： 1） For the impacted teenage drivers there is a significant reduction in their exposure in two- vehicle crashes compared with the reference group, and a decrease in the relative accident involvement ratio; 2） Examination of time of day distributions of impacted drivers shows that there is a conspicuous shift of teenage drivers from the restricted curfew to several hours before and after.%本论文的目的是利用相对危险暴露量理论，探讨密西根州年轻人驾照政策中禁宵令对年轻驾驶员的安全倾向性的影响。禁宵令的有效性体现在两个层面：1）相对于控制组而言，受影响的年轻驾驶员的危险暴露量和危险参与率有显著性减少或者降低；2）通过计算一天内每小时的年轻人的危险暴露量，发现危险暴露量有明显的转移到禁宵前后的几个小时的趋势。