通勤交通方式选择是诸多影响因素综合作用的结果，本文基于主成分回归分析法研究通勤交通方式的影响因素。首先，提取了影响通勤交通方式的主成分，并建立了小汽车、公交、慢行交通（步行+非机动车）出行比例与主要影响因素之间的拟合关系式。通过拟合值与调查值的比较分析，发现拟合等式的平均误差都在5%以内。然后，根据苏州工业园区现状发展情况和未来发展趋势，结合对现状通勤交通方式与主要影响因素之间影响机理的分析，研判了未来通勤交通方式出行比例的变化趋势，并提出了应采取的必要措施。本文研究对于理解通勤交通方式的影响因素及其机理，并为未来发展制定针对性的措施提供必要的理论支持。%Selection of commuting traffic mode was a comprehensive result of many factors acting each other. This paper studied the influencing factors of commuting traffic mode with the principal component regression analysis method. First, the principal component of the influencing factors was extracted, and a fitting relationship among the proportions of car commuting, transit commuting, pedestrian and non-motorized commuting, and the main influencing factors was established. By comparing the fitted values with the investigation ones, the average error of the fitting equation was less than 5%. Then, according to the development status and the future development trends of Suzhou Industrial Park and the influencing mechanism of the main factors on the proportion of commuting traffic mode, this paper researched the future trends of commuting traffic mode proportion and proposed the necessary measures for the park. Generally, the study of this paper contributes to understanding the influencing factors and influencing mechanism, and provides necessary theoretical support for the targeted measures.
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