基于G（1,1）模型的物流产业增加值预测研究

摘要

物流产业增加值是指物流产业在一定时期内通过物流活动为社会提供的最终成果的货币表现，是物流业发展的核心指标之一。本文以灰色系统理论为基础，根据2006~2011年全国物流产业增加值数据，建立了单因子系统云模型G(1,1)。通过对模型拟合和预测精度的检验，证明该模型能满足预测要求。该研究为物流产业发展决策提供了一种新的预测方法。%The added value of logistics industry is a monetary expression of the final results contributed to society by logistics industry. It is one of the core indexes of logistics development. Based on the grey system theory, this paper established a single gene system cloud grey model according to the added value of the logistics industry from 2006 to 2011. Test of the forecast accuracy indicated that the model was suitable for predicting. This is a new means for predicting logistics development.