利用协整理论,从交通运输促进区域经济发展以及区域经济支持交通运输发展两个角度出发,对区域交通运输和经济协调发展协调情况进行分析.选取四川省客货运量、客货周转量、国内生产总值、交通运输固定资产投资等变量,设计基于Johansen协整检验的评价模型.借助eviews8.0对各变量时间序列进行平稳性检验,建立不同变量间的VAR模型,确定其滞后阶数,检验变量间是否存在长期协整关系,利用Granger检验进行指标间的因果关系检验,得出了四川省区域经济与交通运输的相互影响关系,验证了协整分析的有效性.%The coordination relationship between regional transportation and economic development was studied based on the cointegration analysis, from the perspectives that transportation promoted regional economic development and regional economic development supported transportation. The variables such as passenger and freight volume, passenger and freight turnover, GDP and transportation investment of Sichuan province were selected to establish an evaluation model based on Johansen cointegration. The stationary of variable time series were tested by eviews 8.0. Then, the VAR models for different variables were estimated and the lag length criteria of the VAR were determined. Johansen cointegration tests were conducted to determine whether there were stable cointegration equations between the variables. Granger causality tests were used to reveal the causality between different variables. The relationship between the regional economy and transportation was obtained, and the feasibility of cointegration analysis was demonstrated by an example.
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