基于Vague集的铁路旅客乘车选择行为研究

摘要

A selection index system is established in the paper based on the influential factors of railway passenger's trip making behavior, including time, cost, and level of comfort. Integrated with the Vague set theory, a multi-criteria fuzzy decision-making method is then proposed for railway passenger travel selection. The Vague set is used to describe the positive and negative impacts of the influential factors in each trip-making plan. The score functions of each plan are calculated using the methods of max-min, max-max, and max-center. The method is validated using real data of the Lanzhou-Beijing Railway. Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the index weight, vehicle cost and running time. The research results show that Vague set theory is able to capture the uncertainty of railway passenger travel options, and it can be used to guide railway passenger trip making.%根据铁路旅客乘车行为的影响因素,建立包括时间、费用以及舒适度的乘车方案选择指标体系.结合Vague集理论,提出铁路旅客乘车选择的多准则模糊决策方法.该方法根据每个指标所包含的正、负影响因素,采用Vague集表述各乘车方案的特征,依据max-min、max-max、max-center三种方法分别计算各乘车方案的记分函数值,据此得到各方案的优劣排序.最后以兰州一北京段铁路旅客乘车实例对该方法进行了验证,并对指标权重、乘车费用及运行时间进行灵敏度分析.研究结果表明:Vague集理论能够充分考虑铁路旅客出行乘车方案选择问题中的模糊性和不确定性,该方法可以为铁路旅客出行选择决策提供合理参考.