基于随机层次分析法的高校科学研究水平评价

摘要

在分析高校科学研究水平评价体系的层次结构以及量化评价中的不确定性的基础上,设计随机层次分析法对高校科学研究水平进行评价在随机层次分析法中,将专家咨询法过程中的不确定性描述为随机变量,得到随机判断矩阵,进而应用随机模拟方法确定随机判断矩阵中元素的估计值运用随机层次分析法对3个高校的科学研究水平进行了实证分析,阐明该方法在多个指标、存在不确定性的条件下是一种科学、可行的综合评价方法,同时,针对各高校提出了科学研究中存在的问题和相应的对策建议.%Based on analyzing the hierarchy structure of evaluation system and the uncertainty in its quantitative evaluation of scientific- research level in university, a stochastic analytic hierarchy process (SAHP) is designed to evaluate the scientific research level in university. For SAHP, the uncertainties in the process of expert consultation method are described by random variables, and a random judgment matrix is built. The stochastic simulation method is applied to estimation value of the elements in the random judgment matrix. The SAHP is employed to evaluate the scientific research level of three universities, and the SAHP is illustrated a scientific and practicable method for conditions with multi-index and uncertainty, while points of the existing problems and suggestions