交通基础设施PPP项目智能风险评价模型研究

摘要

文章基于模糊综合评价方法和神经网络模型，在分析影响交通基础设施PPP项目运营的主要风险并建立其风险评价指标体系的基础上，提出交通基础设施PPP项目的智能风险评价模型。针对交通基础设施PPP项目风险评价的常用方法对主观经验依赖较强、不同项目间评价结果的可借鉴性不强的现状，本研究的评价模型能通过自主学习模糊综合评价的评价结果而实现风险评价智能化。通过实证分析，证实交通基础设施PPP项目智能风险评价模型具有可行性，并建议根据项目运营情况完善风险评价体系、统一不同项目间的模糊综合评价的评分标准、建立和完善智能风险评价模型的训练样本数据库以及根据项目实际风险情况及时调整评价分数来提高智能模型精度等建议，以期为交通基础设施PPP项目的智能风险评价提供理论指导。%Based on the analysis of the main risks of Public-private-partnership(PPP) projects for transportations , the risk evalua-tion system of Public-private-partnership(PPP) projects for transports is established in this paper, and then the intelligent risk evaluat-ion model of PPP projects is provided based on the fuzzy synthetic evaluation and artificial neural networks. The model suggested aims to improve the situation that the current risk evaluating methods mostly rely on the experts' subjective experience , which could realize the intelligent evaluation of risk of transport PPP projects by learning from the results of the fuzzy synthetic evaluation. The empirical test shows that the intelligent risk evaluation model is feasible. Moreover, some suggestions, such as supplementing the risk evaluation system according to the PPPs' operations, unifying the standards for risk evaluation system, building and completing the database of samples for the model training, and adjusting the scores of evaluation to perfect the model accuracy, are come up with, which could make the theoretical guidance for the intelligent risk evaluation of transport PPP projects.