价格波动对停车占有率影响的空间建模分析

摘要

Downtown San Francisco parking data from 201 1 to 2014 were analyzed and the spatial het-erogeneity of the effect of the price change on the roadside parking occupancy was studied.The dy-namic parking charge policy was implemented for the roadside parking space in this area.According to the parking occupancy,the price was determined.When the block parking occupancy was above,be-low or at the desired level,the parking price dynamically increased,decreased or remained the same. The geographically weighted regression model method was used to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the effects of the price change in different blocks on the parking occupancy.The implementation steps of dynamic parking pricing policy were put forward.The results show that the sensitivity of the price change for roadside parking demand has obvious spatial heterogeneity.The time slots,neighborhood characteristics,social demographics and other variables also have significant impact on the change of the parking occupancy.The results can be used for strategy development of the roadside dynamic park-ing pricing policy,promoting the gain of the desired parking occupancy.%对美国旧金山市中心2011～2014年的停车数据进行分析，研究了价格波动对于路侧停车占有率影响的空间异质性。该地区对路边停车位实行动态停车收费政策，根据停车占有率水平确定收费定价，即当某街区的停车占有率高于、低于或处于期望水平时，停车收费价格动态上调、下降或不变。运用地理加权回归模型方法捕捉不同街区价格波动对停车占有率影响的空间异质性，并提出了动态停车收费定价政策的具体实施步骤。研究结果表明，路边停车需求的价格敏感度具有明显的空间异质性，时间特性、街区特性和社会人口特征等其他变量对停车占有率的改变也有显著影响。研究结果可用于路边停车动态收费策略的制定，促进其获得期望的停车占有率。