能源效率、技术进步与CO2排放相关关系研究--基于1978-2010年时间序列数据分析

摘要

Since the 21st century,the impact of energy efficiency and technical progress on carbon emissions has attracted more and more attention. Based on the data of 1978-2010 and KAYA model and through the JJ cointe-gration,we can examine the relationship among energy structure,energy efficiency,technical progress and the Chi-nese carbon emissions. Results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among energy efficiency,tech-nical progress and carbon emission,and that energy intensity promotes CO2 emissions in the long term,whereas technical progress can reduce CO2 emission. Only by changing the energy structure and developing the high-tech in-dustry can we reduce the CO2 emissions and build green cities.%21世纪以来，能源利用效率、技术进步对碳排放的影响受到了越来越多的关注。基于1978-2010年的数据以及KAYA模型，通过JJ协整可以实证检验能源结构、能源效率、技术进步等因素和中国碳排放的关系。结果表明，能源效率、技术进步与碳排放之间存在长期均衡关系，能源强度长期内促进CO2排放，技术进步可以减少CO2排放。只有改变能源结构、发展高科技产业等才能抑制CO2排放，创建绿色城市。