人民币汇率波动与资本项目开放的关联性∗--基于2002-2013年季度数据的自适应预期模型

摘要

The reform of formation mechanism of Renminbi ( RMB ) exchange rate and the opening of capital account are of great significance to the internationalization of RMB. Based on international balance theory, the adaptive expectation model is established by using the quarterly data from 2002 to 2013, and the correlation of fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the openness of capital account items is analyzed empirically. The result shows that the expected inflow of foreign capital has certain influence on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, while the influence of actual inflow of foreign capital on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is not significant. Hence, along with the opening of capital account items, there is an expectation of RMB appreciation. Consequently, the expectation of RMB appreciation should be reduced, in order to maintain the stability of financial market in the process of RMB internationalization.%汇率形成机制改革、资本账户开放对人民币国际化有着重要的意义。以国际收支说为理论基础,采用2002—2013年季度数据建立自适应预期模型,对人民币汇率波动与资本项目开放的关联性进行实证分析。结果表明,2002—2013年间预期境外资本流入对人民币汇率波动有一定的影响,而当期境外资本流入对人民币汇率波动的影响不显著。因此,随着资本项目开放,预期人民币会升值。对此,应降低人民币升值预期,使金融市场在人民币国际化过程中保持平稳。