基于证据推理的大型海事巡逻救助船船型选择

摘要

To choose the ship type of large-scale marine patrol and rescue ships scientifically,the evalua-tion index system of ship type selection is established from four aspects of cost,technology,energy con-sumption and appearance. The each index weight in the system is determined by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP),and the comprehensive evaluation on each ship type is carried out by the evidence rea-soning and IDS software. Taking the ship type selection of a marine patrol and rescue ship with 3 000 t for example,through evaluating such ship types as round-bilge ships,wave piercing catamarans and tri-marans,the feasibility of the method to ship type selection for large-scale marine patrol and rescue ships is verified.%为科学选择大型海事巡逻救助船船型，从成本、技术、能耗、外观等4个方面构建船型选择评价指标体系，运用层次分析法（Analytical Hierarchy Process，AHP）确定各指标权重，并采用证据推理法，借助IDS软件，对各船型进行综合评价。以3000吨级海事巡逻救助船船型选择为例，通过评价圆舭船型、穿浪双体船型和三体船型，验证该方法在大型海事巡逻救助船船型选择上的可行性。