基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的反恐防范风险评估体系--以上海市重点目标单位为例

摘要

In order to explore the terrorism prevention management mechanism suitable for Chinese situa-tion and Shanghai characteristics,a risk assessment system with a risk-reduction factor is proposed for a key target unit in Shanghai. A risk assessment index system of counter-terrorism target units (vulnerabili-ty)in shanghai is built with a combination of the vulnerability assessment and the response capacity self-assessment in comprehensive risk evaluation. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)and the fuzzy com-prehensive evaluation method are used to realize the quantitative and qualitative analysis. The empirical analysis shows that the index system is scientific and operational.%为探索适合中国国情和上海特点的反恐防范管理机制，提出具有风险减缓因子的上海某重点目标单位风险评估体系。结合综合风险评估中的脆弱性评估和应对能力自我评估构建上海市反恐重点目标单位（脆弱性）风险评估的指标体系。综合运用层次分析法（AHP）和模糊综合评价法实现定量和定性分析。实证表明了该指标体系的科学性和可操作性。