针对国际上以市场机制控制航运业碳排放的趋势，根据系统动力学原理和方法，分析我国航运业低碳发展系统的边界、特征和要素之间因果关系，建立系统动力学模型，解剖系统多重反馈机理和系统要素之间的相互作用过程。对3种减排措施（技术措施、营运措施和基于市场的措施）的减排效果进行模拟。结果表明：适当降低航行速度，改善能源消费结构，合理确定碳税税率并辅之以低碳补贴，能在保障经济健康发展的前提下达到较好的减排效果。%In view of the trend of using market mechanism to control carbon emission in international shipping industry,the boundary,features and cause-and-effect relationships between the elements of Chi-nese shipping industry low-carbon development system are analyzed,and then the system dynamics model is established to find out the multiple feedback mechanisms and the interaction processes between ele-ments in the system. The emission reduction effects of 3 types of measures (technical,operational and market-based measures)are simulated. The results suggest that appropriately reducing speed,improving energy consumption structure and reasonably determining carbon tax with low-carbon subsidy could lead to good emission reduction effect while ensuring economy’s healthy development.
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