基于空间自相关分析的中国国民体质综合指数研究

摘要

Objective:To study the spatial dependence and autocorrelation of the national physique monitoring in various regions of China through geographical spatial econometric analysis model.Meth-ods:The comprehensive index of national physique of 3 1 provinces (autonomous regions)issued in 2005,2010 and 2014 were selected.Spatial autocorrelation was analyzed through global Moran’s index and local G statistics.Results:The global Moran’s index of the comprehensive index of national physique in the 3 1 provinces (autonomous regions)showed “U -shaped”trend;the influence of the national physique index in adjacent regions on that of national physique index of provinces (au-tonomous regions)first gradually decreased and then constantly increased.The nationwide compre-hensive index of national physique had relatively good space structure and there was is space positive correction.On the whole,there was a trend that the areas with high comprehensive index of national physique were adjacent.2)The local autocorrelation analysis of the comprehensive index of national physique presented obvious polarization phenomenon.Central and eastern regions showed the trend high aggregation effect of positive convergence,while the western regions showed low aggregation effect of negative convergence.The causes might link with the regional differences in social environ-ment,ecological environment,etc.Conclusion:The research on the national physique from the per-spective of geographical space and the dynamic change of time sequence provides a new train of thought for the researches of sports in China.To further reveal the internal motive and mechanism of the spatial distribution characteristics of comprehensive index of national physique in China,more a-nalysis is needed through diversified information,such as economy,culture,society and natural conditions.%目的：运用地理空间计量分析模型对中国各区域国民体质监测的空间依赖作用和自相关关系进行研究。方法选取2005年、2010年和2014年发布的31个省市（自治区）国民体质综合指数作为衡量指标，采用全局Moran指数和局域G统计量进行空间自相关分析。结果表明：1）中国31个省市（自治区）的国民体质综合指数的全局Moran＇s I指数呈“U”态势，各省市（自治区）国民体质综合指数受到周边邻接地域国民体质综合指数的影响先逐渐减少后持续增加。国民体质综合指数在全国范围内具有较好的空间结构性，存在明显的空间正相关。整体上具有国民体质综合指数高的地区相邻接的趋势。2）国民体质综合指数的局部自相关分析呈现出明显的两极分化现象，中东部地区表现为正向趋同的高聚集效应趋势，偏西部地区则呈现负向趋同的低聚集效应趋势。形成这一结论的原因可能与地区的社会环境、生态环境等因素的差异有关联。启示：从地理空间角度和时间序列的动态变化方向去研究国民体质这一社会现象，为国内体育科学研究提供了新的思路。想要进一步揭示中国国民体质综合指数的空间分布特征形成的内部动因与机理，还须结合经济、文化、社会、自然条件等多元化信息进行分析。